Melting ice sparks global warming debate, but who’s right?

Melting ice sparks a global warming debate, but who’s right? The crux of proving global warming hinges directly on the ability of science to suggest a trend or hypothesis that can be true over an extended period of time. Although the recent scientific study done by the University of Michigan only spans 3 decades, researchers believe the data that shows the cryosphere’s melting trend may be a significant finding for the relevancy of global warming. But is it just a short glimpse in an otherwise sinusoidal pattern?

Mark Flanner of the University of Michigan conducted the study of the Northern Hemisphere that analyzed satellite data of the earth’s cryosphere — the area on the earth’s surface covered by water in a solid form such as ice, snow, or even frozen ground.

The study, a first of its kind, found that decreases in snow and ice have contributed to “albedo feedback,” which is a change to the reflective properties of the cryosphere. As the earth continues to warm up, the solid water continues to melt, exposing the ground and water to the suns rays which in turn absorb the suns heat instead of reflecting the rays back into the atmosphere.

The effect is that the cryoshere is reflecting .45 less watts into the atmosphere than when the first data was collected 3 decades ago and each square meter of the earth now absorbs 240 watts of solar radiation.

The conclusion, as stated by Flanner, is that “a feedback of this magnitude would translate into roughly 15 percent more warming, given current understanding of other feedback mechanisms.”

A change in climate by 15% would no doubt make global warming a very scary reality, but can a model like this be trusted?

Two potential flaws stand out in the study.

First, 30 years is not a sufficient amount of time to gauge global climate change. Even Karen Shell, a professor from Oregon State who participated in the study, admitted, “[it] isn’t a long enough time period to attribute this entirely to ‘forcing,’ or anthropogenic influence.”

A study that only last 30 years creates an array of variables that simply do not take into account the cyclical trends of the earth.

Second, as already proven in many global warming studies, models are often times overly sensitive and need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Certainly, changes are happening and a study like this that showcases a developing trend is something to watch, but it may be a while before there is much validity to its global warming data.

Comments

Even if part of a 'natural' cycle, the heating is still there and will have effects. We have no clue how long this cycle (if any) might be or how the anthropogenic factors may interact with it - possibly converting a cycle into continued rise or pushing it much higher than the 'natural' amount. It is one of the hypothesised positive feedbacks in the derided models after all.

Climate change is to environmentalism, what

1939 goose stepping is to social leftist-progressivism.

In 1939 they persecuted Jews just for their wealth, but these Greenzis hate anyone that has the planet killing privileges of wealth, waste and accumulation.

Climate change is to environmentalism, what

1939 goose stepping is to social leftist-progressivism.

In 1939 they persecuted Jews just for their wealth, but these Greenzis hate anyone that has the planet killing privileges of wealth, waste and accumulation.

Yes Indeed, is the ice melting??

During the last 2 years, tcick ice (over 2,5 m) has had a very fast recovere, and its taking place right now:

http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/trends-in-arctic-ice-thickness-and-volume-211.php

K.R. Frank

 

 

Frank: I don't know how you can say the ice is recovering because on the graph you link to shows the oldest ice is all but gone now. And you do know the ice coverage of the Arctic has been in steep decline over past 40 years from 9 million sq km down to 5.5 sq km? http://www.skepticalscience.com/Has-Arctic-sea-ice-recovered.htm

Ryan re albedo. Your conclusions are wrong. This wasn't a modelling study, remember you were complaining about only 30 years of satellite data? These were real measurements so are the ones that measure how much ice is left in the Arctic. 

And yes you can stand in the middle of the road to wait and see if the bus that's coming is real. Me I'd rather step out of the way...

 

Climate forcing is not "manmade", that is too broad and accusatory.

Climate forcing is caused by fossil energy.

Fossil energy releases CO2 (aka just "carbon") into the atmospher that was captured aeons ago (or never, if you're a young-earther).  On the other hand, breathing, burning wood, burning cow farts/sewage/landfill gas releases carbon that was captured in the last few years.  This allows fossil fuel energy to release CO2 a hundred times faster than any other process.

Global warming policy isn't anti-human, it's anti-fossil and anti-old fossil technology.

Technology allows our large population and our high standard of living.  However, technology cannot stand still.  We must adapt to changes that our previous adaptations have caused.  We must move to new technology.

The government occasionally spurs on better technology through policy faster than the market would have done so.  We need a policy to transition us off of fossil energy.  The market will not invest in non-fossil energy and make it cheaper until fossil energy becomes more scarce. 

We need to facilitate a transition before this happens because a late transition will mean chaotic energy prices and delaying will increase the level of CO2 in the air.  The level of CO2 declines very slowly (hundreds of years) and continues to cause excess heating and a chaotic climate all the while.

We must cause the market to invest in non-fossil energy now.  Government should not direct the funds and try to pick non-fossil winners.  The broader market should be given money to invest.  This can be done by government via a universal tax cut.  At the same time, fossil energy price must be made to increase slowly but consistently.

A fine against fossil production and import should be used to decrease taxes universally.  Thus, fossil energy prices will be higher for the consumer, but he will be able to take the income from lower taxes and pay for the higher prices.  Wise consumers will invest in non-fossil energy and fund the transition off of fossils while growing the economy.

See http://carbontax.org/http://citizensclimatelobby.org/http://carbonfees.org/ , James Hansen, Robert Laffer, Michael Bloomberg, and more...

Please print for all to read
 Read well and study on your own after you have read this.
This is not a game or joke our Sun gives off a Solar Wind all day year round if you live in theState of Alaska you see it in the sky above what a sight it is going through our Earth's Magnet
 
Polls
of the North and the South, North Poll. Its Called the Northern Lights or the Aurora Borealis.Our Sun's UV Rays will get stronger as each passing day go's by, read and i will tell you why.
The Great big forest have be striped from most of the Earth for Greed of Money by the Wicked. The trees our are Main Source of Oxygen on this Plant.The Forest trees scrubs the Pollution out of the air and makes Oxygen from the rain and dirt that it grows in.The Pollution and CO2 Carbon Dioxide go into the Tree Bark as a sheild from most bugs so they do not eat the tree.
Less Forest less Oxygen this is why the moon. That has no Oxygen is very cold on the side with out Sun Light,And hot as ever on the side with Sun Light. Way too cold and too hot to live there.With no blank of Oxygen to lessen or reduce the Sun's UV Rays and Solar Wind they are deadly there on our Moon. Every Mt. Climber and Aircraft Pilot knows the higher you go the thiner the Oxygen and colder it gets.Just spend a night on a Mt. top above 13,000 feet with no SunLight and you will see or should i say feelthe cold stinging any of your exposed skin. The Astronauts and the Cosmonauts and Fighter Pilots that i havebeen with for years know this very well, and the Radiation hazards to humans at High Altitudes.
Soon the Sun's Solar Wind and UV rays will be way to strong for most to go out in the Sun lightfor even a short time. The Geomagnetic Storm to come and the Bad Weather Storms well you havenot seen nothing yet and the Sea Level is Rising. The last 30 years On Earth we have broke all high temp records and the temp it is still going up. All The Mountain Glaciers around the Earth are Melting Back and so are the ice sheets on Green Land and the North and South Polls. Less ice Greater is the absorption of Solar Radiation to the Ground and the Oceans. The Bad Weather Stroms now are Babies compared to what is to come.
They will get even bigger and worse less Oxygen the more UV Rays to the Earth and more Water molecules willevaporat and go up into the Earth's Atmosphere. Less Oxygen the colder with out sun light and hoter with it. The Sky full of more water vapor molecules, more snow in the winter and more Flash Floods in the Summer.
If every living person on Earth were to plant a tree today we might have a chance. The Earth's  Atmosphere Blanket surrounding it protects life on Earth, as Our Lord and GOD will all that seek Him.  Then it is written when the tree is full it is harvest time. All the Earth will someday burn away. This is all Foretold in the Bible Read it The Lord's little Helper
Paul Felix Schott  KI4-AEX
solardowork@yahoo.com P.S. 2 Peter 3:10But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a roar andthe elements will be destroyed with intense heat, and the earth and its works will be burned up.

As soon as the coastal cities become flooded, and that is world wide, there will be no doubt.

Michael

Interesting to see people debate about this, has anybody taken a look at the natural earths natural cooling and warming cycles, though the temp over the last several century has dramatically changed, according to some we were on pace for warming regardless based on historical temp changes.  I'd be interested if someone can shed more light on this, not some literate novice surfing scientist, I mean somebody with a phd and is not bitter about oil companies or environmentalist.

Lane Tech is Accredited in making or Produceding more PhD.s  Doctor of Philosophy then any other School on Earth. All that go there and that have gone there know why it is called the School of Champions. For more then ten years i  have helped student there at Lane and i am very proud of it. My father and older brother and me also went there. My Mother holds six PhD.s The News Papers said bearer of five PhD.s so they were one off. For All you City Dudes and thinkers that are still a little off, i am asking you to just open your eyes and do a little search for knowledge and to look for the Truth. That is very easy to do today as to 50 years ago.

SOLAR ENERGY has more then Doubled this last year. Solar energy is now one of the fastest growing industries in the United States and the World. 

You want to help plant a tree or two and cut the power to the power grid and install solar Energy on your home office and car ports. If to poor to do so encourage others to do so and tell your Government Leaders to use it on all new Government buildings. Solar and Wind and Renewable Energy.

Every body needs a little Encouragement from time to time or now and then. Do not be Bitter be helpful to others.

GOD Bless you all

Adviser to Government Scientist

The Lord's Little Helper

Paul Felix Schott

solardowork@yahoo.com

P.S. when i was in high school i would play three or four people a game of chess at one time on three to four chessboard and always won every game, even if they were Science and Mathematics teachers. School of Champions. My Father was at many things.